By Jürgen Dieringer

According to a new study by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the quality of democracy is in decline globally, and autocratization continues. The study researched 137 countries in transition (consolidated Western democracies are excluded) with respect to quality of democracy, economy, and governance. Only 63 of them can be considered democracies. The results of the study are presented in the BTI Transformation Atlas and the Bertelsmann Transformation Index.

A transformation retarded

The findings are disappointing. The average indicator (status index) shows a slow but constant decline of 0,41 points (to 5.27) over the last decade. Especially worrying is the fact that in 33 countries the transformation towards democracy and market economy has to be considered as failing, sharply up by 50% from 22 (2014).

Regionally, states with failed transformation processes concentrate in Africa and Asia. Among them are such prominent countries like Egypt, Syria, and Venezuela. Current events in Russia, Niger, or Ethiopia show how countries slowly or quickly turn into autocracies when ruling elites fake elections, cut-off human rights, and tackle the rule of law.

“In the last two years alone, elections in 25 countries were less free and fair, while assembly and association rights in 32 states have been increasingly curtailed and the freedom of expression in 39 countries has faced tightened controls. This gradual erosion of democracy can provide a pathway for the establishment of authoritarian rule (…)”

BTI, Transformation Index 2024

The processes of autocratization are often comparable. Corrupt elites capture the state, and exploit the economy by using state institutions. To secure their kleptocracy, they start to remove checks and balances, tackle election laws, courts, and especially the media system. Once in power, it is almost impossible to remove them short of a revolution or Coup d’État.

Source: BTI Transformation Atlas 2024

In most of these countries, output-legitimacy is low. The difference between democracies and autocracies in socioeconomic development, the quality of basic administration, and the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures is enormous. There seems to be not only a correlation, but a causation between corruption and socioeconomic development.

The light at the end of some tunnels

In this global downturn, few good examples and best practices exist. East-Central Europe and Southeast Europe generally perform resiliently, backed by the anchors in EU and NATO, or accession processes to these organizations. The Baltic States are among the champions of transformation. But there are exceptions here as well, especially Hungary, where the quality of democracy has declined ever since Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party retook power.

Taiwan and South Korea in East Asia, Costa Rica, Chile and Uruguay in Latin America demonstrate that transformation can be achieved successfully, despite pressures from economic downturns, or foreign political and military challenges. Strong institutions securing the rule of law, sustainable governance with strategic prioritization, participatory elements and inclusion are the safeguards of strong policy performance, especially in education, health care, and infrastructure, where good governance shows the most directly, lifting or securing living standards. This, in turn, strengthens democratic values and stabilizes the systems.

Another positive example is a cluster of countries in the southern part of Africa. Botswana, Namibia, Kenya, and some others show positive developments. Zambia and Kenya made significant improvements in their transition process, not only economically but with respect to democratic development as well. In the democracy indicator, Botswana is on a level playing field with Bulgaria.

Source: BTI Transformation Atlas 2024

Systemic Democratic Peace Theory states that the more countries are settled in such a cluster, the more spillover effects will occur. The Western world will have to recognize that these regions offer excellent opportunities to dock Western foreign and developmental policies and to strive – much stronger than before – to strengthen bonds with the respective countries. If Washington, Brussels, Paris or Berlin are missing the opportunities, they pave the way for Russian and Chinese influence.

Autocracy and Populism: Unfortunately Unavoidable

Setbacks in democratization processes are normal. S. Huntington* spoke of “reverse waves” that popped in after the first (after World War I) and the second (after World War II) waves of democratization. The third wave was global and reached Latin America, Africa, South East Asia, and Eastern Europe. Now we have setbacks in all regions, but lighthouses as well. What is visible is a certain transition fatigue. The pull-effect of prospering Western societies showcasing their successful model has eroded, and a global post-Cold-War ideology did not form beyond dominant neoliberal approaches. In a world affected by huge challenges like climate change and technological breakthroughs, the progress humanity made in fighting hunger, in providing equal opportunities, and in tackling poverty, become less visible. What is missing are global governance structures that enable problem-solving beyond narrow national interests, which is often not more than the interest of a corrupt elite. Democratization is more important than ever, because fully-fledged democracies do not fight wars against each other.

• Huntington, S. P. (1991). Democracy’s third wave. J. Democracy, 2, 12.